Is this the Straw?

The assassination of Rafik Hariri the former prime minister of Lebanon will shake the Middle East to the core. The Lebanese have seized this event and present a united front against Syria. Hariri was also a friend of Jacques Chirac, and his assassination has lead to close cooperation between the US and France. The press has been all over this story, and it looks like they might be taking it seriously.

Quite a pickle for Syria.

What should we do?

I agree with Fareed Zakaria that sanctions against Syria won’t work. Sanctions almost never work, even if they are multilateral (just look at Iraq.) With Iran and Syria signing a new self defense pact, and I assume they would have no problems trading with each other and smuggling is rampant in the Middle East (see Iraq sanctions.)

What we need is some good cop bad cop from the EU and the US. France and the EU have to push hard for Syrian withdrawal and democratic elections as the only way to stop the US from freeing Lebanon. France and the EU need to make clear to Bashar Assad that they won’t oppose and would even consider helping the US in this endeavor. They should emphasize that Damascus is on the way to Lebanon from Iraq and the US could take out both regimes in a single stroke.

The vision of free elections in Afghanistan and especially Iraq has given hope to the silent masses in the Arab world. Before there was no hope, now every country has a tipping point where the pent up frustrations of generations of oppressed Arabs spills into the street. We have seen it in Iraq and now Lebanon, where will it happen next? My bet is Egypt during the next “election” of Hosny Mubarak. After watching Iraqis voting freely are Egyptians going to stand for a farce?