Welcome to Snubville

Looks like Mubarak heard Condi’s message loud and clear. Tigerhawk has a nice round-up. Apparently Mubarak doesn’t think the US or the Egyptian people will stand for a completely farcical election as I opined a few days back.

I doubt the election will be free, but that Mubarak moved at all is a big step. The opposition and the US need to keep the pressure on Egypt to release their political prisoners and to hold truly free elections. Mubarak can see the change in sentiment throughout the Arab street and he is scared. However, I doubt he will allow any election he is not guaranteed to win.

The question then becomes: Will the Egyptian people stand for a fake election when the Iraqis and, hopefully, the Lebanese didn’t have to?

Eurasian Containment

Are we witnessing a new realignment of world power? Bryan Preston on TCS outlines a believable scenario in Asia. Basically it involves Japan abandoning its military restraint in a step-wise fashion, ratcheting up the pressure on China. I like his thinking and at the end he talks about an encircled China.

However, he doesn’t go far enough. I think I see a larger strategy emerging.

If you look at a map it looks like we mean to encircle the entirety of Eurasia. The US alliance consists of recently freed countries, the bits that stick out and islands. With Japan, Britain, Australia, Taiwan, Italy (nominally), South Korea, Denmark, Afghanistan, Iraq (maybe) and hopefully Ukraine (if the new government keeps troops in Iraq) forming the bulk of this alliance. Some of the eastern European nations would have been included earlier but they seem to be drifting towards the EU (I’m talking to you Poland.) Britain could come off the list too as Blair seems keen on selling the Chinese arms. I find it hard to believe that Britain will betray us, but if the EU and Britain join Russia selling arms to China the US will cut off technology transfers and will strain diplomatic relations severely. The recent move by Japan to defend Taiwan should show them how serious we are about containing China.

With the EU courting China what should we do?

We should tighten the noose. India is the new diplomatic battleground. Soon to be the most populous nation, already a functioning democracy, India’s market economy is growing quickly and looks ready for the big stage. We should offer India generous trade concessions, military assistance including weapons and diplomatic support. Pakistan makes it a bit sensitive but we are less reliant on Pakistan now that we are camped in Afghanistan. I would rather have India than Pakistan, and Musharraf made permanent enemies of the Islamists so I wouldn’t be any more concerned about the nuke issue. The EU dropping sanctions on selling arms to China would be a perfect opening for closer Indian relations, filling the circle.

I don’t know if this is strategy was intelligently driven by the US, China or the EU, or if it just coalesced out of the muck of international relations, but it looks like it is happening. Is it an illusion? Perhaps, but we should start thinking about it.

Moss Gone?

I would have preferred Phillip Buchannan and the first round pick, but this deal is about as good as it is going to get. Won't know for sure until the 2nd but I don't mind picking up the 7th pick. Napolean Harris is decent, but I agree with John Clayton that he doesn't really help the Vikes (maybe we can trade him or one of the other LBs for something.) However, I disagree with Clayton and don't think the Vikes should use the 7th pick on a wide reciever. The Vikes Offense didn't suffer too badly when Moss was gone, but our defense sucked all year. I would rather have CB Antrell Rolle or CB Adam Jones with the 7th then use the 18th pick on David Pollack. I'm always happy to see UGA players on the Vikes! With this trade my other alma mater (Northwestern) is represented again on the Vikes so an UGA grad in the same deal would be sweet.

See. I've already moved on and the deal isn't even confirmed.

Korea

Good post on North Korea.

I wish the South Koreans would take a stand, but they will bear the burden of any miscalculation or escalation. Staring a dangerously insane regime in the face tends to make one a little more "sensitive" and lighter in touch. North Korea is growing more insane and dangerous every day. How “sensitive” can the South Koreans become?

Viking Ramblings

Now it is the owner. Why are so many big moments in the Vikings organization tainted by controversy? Owner falsifying his own resume, idiotic timing of Tice’s contract and of course missing the bell in 2 drafts. Hopefully this is just a signature of the McCombs ownership and hasn’t become rooted in the organization. However, I am not too enamored of Reggie Fowler, and not just because of the resume flap (not helping though).

The fans shouldn’t be standing for this new owner. I don’t care that he is black. He’s just not rich enough. If the financial stuff released so far is accurate (worth ~400 million), he won’t have much wiggle room. With the debt he will be paying back and a really big chunk of his equity wrapped up in the team, he won’t have much mad money to throw around as signing bonuses.

Glen Taylor is rich enough (1.8 billion) but doesn’t seem to throw a ton of money at the Wolves, but he could if he wanted. The NFL is the ultimate ego club, and I imagine it could change you, loosen the purse strings perhaps. I still think Taylor has a chance at the team.

I don’t know if Fowler will be able to come up with the money in a way that satisfies the NFL. Fowler wants to retain control of his company, so he can’t raise the money by selling so much stock that he looses control. He’s going to borrow money from himself. The finances get really complicated at this level and more than one ownership bid has been shot down by the NFL. I hope this bid gets srejected just like Tom Clancy's...shudder.

However, if it happens I hope Fowler all the luck in the world...He's going to need it.

Is this the Straw?

The assassination of Rafik Hariri the former prime minister of Lebanon will shake the Middle East to the core. The Lebanese have seized this event and present a united front against Syria. Hariri was also a friend of Jacques Chirac, and his assassination has lead to close cooperation between the US and France. The press has been all over this story, and it looks like they might be taking it seriously.

Quite a pickle for Syria.

What should we do?

I agree with Fareed Zakaria that sanctions against Syria won’t work. Sanctions almost never work, even if they are multilateral (just look at Iraq.) With Iran and Syria signing a new self defense pact, and I assume they would have no problems trading with each other and smuggling is rampant in the Middle East (see Iraq sanctions.)

What we need is some good cop bad cop from the EU and the US. France and the EU have to push hard for Syrian withdrawal and democratic elections as the only way to stop the US from freeing Lebanon. France and the EU need to make clear to Bashar Assad that they won’t oppose and would even consider helping the US in this endeavor. They should emphasize that Damascus is on the way to Lebanon from Iraq and the US could take out both regimes in a single stroke.

The vision of free elections in Afghanistan and especially Iraq has given hope to the silent masses in the Arab world. Before there was no hope, now every country has a tipping point where the pent up frustrations of generations of oppressed Arabs spills into the street. We have seen it in Iraq and now Lebanon, where will it happen next? My bet is Egypt during the next “election” of Hosny Mubarak. After watching Iraqis voting freely are Egyptians going to stand for a farce?

Not Enough

We should not be giving out farm subsidies especially not to dead people. Bush’s budget is a good start but doesn’t go nearly far enough.

It is time for farm subsidies to end. Farm subsidies and tariff protections do very little to help the small farmer but do much to raise the price of food for the average American. Why in the world does the US government give money to Californian farmers to grow rice in the desert? Rice is one of the most water intensive crops in the world, yet the government gives these farmers cheap water, direct subsidies and tariff protection to grow rice.

Who does it help to subsidize sugar cane farmers when we could be getting the sugar from Caribbean nations? It sure doesn’t help the small farmer since over 95% of the sugar cane grown in this country is grown by a few large growers. Without doubt it hurts small third-world countries, US sugar consumers who have to pay 2-3 times the actual cost of sugar and candy producers who are moving to Mexico and Canada to avoid high sugar prices and then export the finished candy to the US without ruinous tariffs.

The US spends over 20 billion a year on direct payments to “farmers.” I don’t have anything against farmers, heck I toy with the idea of becoming a farmer, but they don’t deserve help from the government any more than any other business. Just like individual welfare programs, corporate welfare of any type causes the same dependence on government and the same corruption. Just like regular welfare, corporate welfare also has fails to fix the problem. Competition with the world will drive innovation and productivity improvements. The US is the most innovative society in the world, and has some of the most productive land in the world. Trust the US farmer to rise to this challenge.

Don’t think I’m picking on farmers alone, I want all subsidies to end. Ethanol, timber, mining, fishing, mohair, helium, and any others I am missing.

Social Security Reform...Part ARRRRGGG

Adding to the comments on SS reform,

THERE IS NO TRUST FUND!
THERE IS NO LOCKBOX!
THERE IS NO MONEY STASHED AWAY!
THE SURPLUS ENDS NEXT DECADE!
U.S. BONDS ARE TAXES THAT HAVE TO BE PAID!
THERE IS NO TRUST FUND!
THERE IS NO LOCKBOX!
THERE IS NO MONEY STASHED AWAY!
ARRRRRGGGGG!

P.S. Thanks a bunch Dawg for the visualization of Barbara Boxer wearing a thong…thanks a whole lot...Bastard!

North Korean Nukes?

I have been following the NK situation quite intently for the last few years. There have been signs of an impending change in government over the last few months that the MSM have mostly ignored. This article is the exception. It adds a few more clues to a hopefully impending collapse of the current NK government. The massive explosion a few months back seemed to be an assassination attempt on Kim Jong-Il, an assassination attempt on his son in Geneva and stories of purges and gun-play between the various cliques of NK leaders. A video shows dissent posters and apparently shows an active group of internal dissenters. There were earlier reports of Kim propaganda posters being defaced or removed without penalty and that Kim was no longer referred to as the “Dear Leader” (sorry can’t find link). To top it off, Kim hasn’t been seen in public for months and new propaganda coming out is using old images.

Knowing these facts, what should we make of NK’s recent announcement of having “Nukes” (yes they specifically used the colloquial term)? In the past they have issued aggressive statements or used a provocative measure to turn up the heat and pressure the US for concessions. Under Bush these have mostly failed as Bush is using the same routine with Kim as he did Arafat. We have to remember that even if there is a power struggle in the top ranks of the NK government, these people are also totalitarians who would like to be the next “Dear Leader.” The successful overthrow of Saddam and the vote in Iraq would have scared them just as much as Kim since they would have to face justice from those the government has oppressed and killed. If there is a power struggle both sides benefit from any sort of delay allowing them to consolidate or re-consolidate power. Neither side wants a total collapse of the NK government as both sides are keen on the absolute power that comes with running the world’s most totalitarian state.

I won't believe that NK has nukes until they test one. I need to see and taste the pudding.

Iraq Hypocrisy in Haiku

Iraqi voters
Receiving Nobel Peace Prize?
Will never happen.

Unfortunately
Committee of Left Remains
Firmly in Control

Links

Woot! My adventures in HTML continue. Yesterday java enabled sitemeter, today links. Haven't corrupted the site yet!

Yah its lame, but give me a break. I haven't done any programming since turbo pascal...shudder.

So You Want a Good Computer?

Here you go Dawg. The Value ($1000) gaming system. Mix and match with the High-End ($2500) gaming system depending on how much you want to spend. You can also find the Extreme ($4000) gaming system but that is insane, and I know you ain’t dropping $4K on a computer. This will give you the parts you need for your computer.

Now go to a place like CyberPower and get them to build it for you. You will get a much better gaming system than anything that Dell or Gateway can offer for the price. The motherboards recommended in the above systems are significantly better than those offered by Dell and the others. A good motherboard is necessary to get maximum performance for gaming.

I have a CyberPower PC that I configured from the above site and have zero problems, and can play any game out there at a high resolution. I spent $950 without a monitor.

Stupid Lawyer

Lynne Stewart was convicted today of aiding the blind sheik and terrorist Omar Abdel-Rahman. She is getting what she deserves. I have no problem with her defending this monster, or the other idiots she has associated with over a long and ignoble career. Everyone deserves a fair trail and I don’t doubt that some prosecutors would railroad anyone for political gain. However, it is far from “a message to lawyers who represent alleged terrorists that it's dangerous to do so”, more like a message that it is pretty stupid to help a terrorist continue his trade.

You doubt her stupidity? She testified for herself during the trial, saying in part "to rid ourselves of the entrenched, voracious type of capitalism that is in this country that [sic] perpetuates sexism and racism, I don't think that can come nonviolently." This is perhaps the most moronic statement that could be uttered when one is on trial for aiding a terrorist convicted of using violence against “this country.” Remember she is a trial lawyer. Did she forget that she was trying to win this trial and the jury wasn’t composed of left-wing wackos, or is she sequestered so deeply in the lefty echo chamber that she thinks that most people are lefty wackos? Either way she doesn’t seem too bright to me.

Beating a Dead Horse

Newt! What have you done? The UN cannot be reformed! A communist dictatorship sits in the permanent security council. Yet magically we will somehow build “an international organization that is credible and effective, one that can work together with national governments in dealing with concrete problems of terrorism and nuclear proliferation, human rights violations and genocide” Hell, we can’t push the Darfur thing through the UN because of Chinese oil interests in Sudan. Despite what the UN says, Darfur is genocide.

We need a democracy union. Tier based like the UN with longstanding (30 years) functional (multi-party, bloodless power transitions) democracies forming the equivalent of the permanent security council that have a more restrained veto. The rest of the members are nominal democracies that suffer from occasional coups, widespread voting fraud, etc. The nominal members will vote with the permanent members and if it passes by a majority it passes, as long as at least 2/3rds of the permanent members vote aye. While this isn’t perfect it is far superior to the current iteration of “World Government”.

ID Please

This is a good start, but it's time for a national ID. It needs to be as forgery proof as possible by containing some sort of chip to encode a nearly unbreakable password. This ID would be required to get a job, get a passport, drive a car, rent an apartment, get married, etc. We could use them for "green cards" and other visas. This is an important step to ensure border security. I can't decide whether it should be implanted.

As a bonus it would greatly damage the underground immigrant economy. I'm all in favor of immigration. I just want to know who we are letting in, collect the taxes they aren't paying (thereby reducing my own) and know when they are supposed to leave. We need immigrants since Americans, like me, aren't having kids in rates enough to support our economy. Without immigrants we would be toiling along with anemic growth like France and Germany. I want all immigrants from around the world be more like the legal ones: talented, smart and hard-working. The USA imports talent and intelligence unlike any other country in the world. It's called "brain drain" and it empties into the USA.

Don't let the libertarians scare you with the whole "government monitoring" argument. Corporations, individuals and the government can easily find reams of information about you with a few keystrokes. A national ID card isn't going to hurt anyone but criminals.

Just kidding. I have decided about the whole implantable thing.

The Sosa Trade

Living in Chicago I have to give you my impression of the Sosa trade. First some disclosures. I am a Braves fan and root for them against any team, but I also like the Cubs. I have always disliked Sosa. He struck me as incredibly insincere from the beginning, and did nothing to disprove my initial conclusion.

That being said the reaction in Chicago has been pretty understated at best. There’s been absolutely no hue or cry about it from normal fans. I haven’t heard anyone complain about Sosa, pretty much everyone believes he wore out his welcome. Fans wish they could have gotten more for him but most understood that the trade was about as good as it was going to get.

To me it showed Cubs fans aren’t as dumb as I thought.

No Cigar?

So Cuba finally decided to jump on the anti-smoking raft. How can this be? For years Castro could hardly be seen without a big stogie searing its delicious flavor into his lungs. The guy is 78 years old, doesn’t look like smoking did him much harm.

This has to be a sign that Castro is no longer in control of Cuba. The is no way Fidel would let anyone tell him when or where to smoke (well, nobody could ever tell Castro what to do on anything so I’m guessing this ban is for the less equals)

If this ban is enforced the numbers of European tourists will take a big dive. Shows you what commies know about pleasing the customer.

I can't say more

Victor David Hansen writes about everything that I am thinking about much more eloquently than I ever could.
YOU MUST READ THIS!

Speaking of Exploits

Not even the NYT can ignore the UN Oil-for-Food investigation. Now that both Sevan and Boutros-Ghali have been implicated in the scandal by it's own investigation, it will be impossible for the MSM to play it down. We now come full circle to the place that liberals will point to show that they are not biased. “Hey we reported on the UN scandal/Bill Clinton’s Monicagate” excuse. No mention will be made that they waited until the evidence was impossible to ignore before they pounced.

Eason Jordan’s remarks still seem a mystery to the MSM (no story so far in anything except blogs). Hmm I wonder why? Same for the blatantly racist treatments of both Alberto Gonzales and Condi Rice by the Democrats.

Yep, sure is no liberal media bias.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Speak for Yourself!

I am virus free, and ethanol enabled, so blogging for everyone.

Hmm....It is Friday night, shouldn't I be doing something? Oh yah right, I am getting bent on Glenmorangie since today was a giant slog at work.

Three interviews, a brutal 1.5 hour meeting in which almost nothing got accomplished (it was agreed that I will create a flow-chart to visualize what wasn’t accomplished...sigh), one employee review (at least it was a good one), my VP gets directly involved in a series of screw-ups by my employees and...and topped off by a 7 AM meeting which is a complete waste of time and an embarrassment to the guy who runs it. Let me give you a hint moron! Holding a meeting at 7AM on a Friday is a sure way to draw less than 25% of the people who should come. The one bonus is my employees get to gorge on all the left-over catering.

Ok enough personal stuff, time for blogging!

Grand Theft Auto San Andreas is one of the best video games I have played…ever. It could top out at #1 depending on the ending. The cut scenes are awesomely acted (Samuel Jackson and Chris Penn are dirty cops) and mostly excellent. The story arc is also very very good. Sure the physics of everything is arcade-like but that just makes it more fun. This is the game that took my PS2 out of DVD player only into game platform again.

I used to love video games but recently I have been very jaded. I have played tons of different video games but lately mostly multiplayer, since AI usually bothers me something fierce. I have played the massively-multiplayer online role-playing (MMO) games, and the many of the FPS realistic war games.

The problem I have is that I want the best of both worlds. I want a game that has an end-point, but I get to play it against other people, not AI. This of course is a very hard formula. Who will continue to play the opposite when he knows he will loose. Since there is no real penalty, the opponent would rather loose fast and start again than play hard to the end. This of course is impossible given the current restrictions in programming.

What makes GTASA so great is that it is so much fun to play. There are a ton of exploits that you get to know and love by the end. They just add to the fun. You just accept that it is a game and is fun to play a certain way. They want you to find the “cheats” and enjoy the game. Many video games try to rid their games of cheats and exploits, GTASA lets you find them quite easy if you think about the situation. It’s a perfect theme to include in a game where crime and mayhem are the fun of the game.

Three to One?

Are we making too much of the ethnic breakdown in Iraq? I know I have been a little guilty of not really believing that Iraqi’s considered themselves, well, Iraqi.

I have not been so naïve to believe that the Iraqi Shiites were enamored with Iran. Iranians are Persians and Iraqis are Arabs. They have been fighting each other for thousands of years; there is no danger of Shiite Iraq willingly turning into a potentate of Iran.

The Kurds do long for a greater Kurdistan, but it looks like they are willing to give Iraq a shot. I think they know Turkey won’t stand for an independent Kurdish state and the Iraqi Kurds have built themselves a pretty decent life (by the local standards) under protection of the No-Fly Zones.

But those are realist positions, rational choices.

What is in the Iraqi heart?

Iraq has a long and illustrious past, from Sumer, Babylon, to the Caliphate. Do the Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites all connect with this history? Do they share enough common values and history to ignite a nation? The recent vote overwhelmingly shows that both the Shiites and Kurds are willing to give it a try. Recently some Sunni clerics that opposed the vote are grudgingly climbing aboard.

Can the Iraqi people come together and reach for a new glory?

I sure hope so, for all our sakes.

Davos

If you haven't had a chance you should really read Jay Nordlinger's Impromtus on NRO. It is a series of interesting and usually witty takes on the Davos economic forum that recently concluded. I am sure most of you have read about CNN’s Eason Jordan’s insane comments at Davos. Well Mr. Nordlinger writes about the above and many other interesting tidbits presented in a Fair and Balanced way.

Get an inside look at the not so subtle anti-Americanism permeating the global elite.

Vikings Rant #2

Continued from Viking Rant #1

The Offense: Not much to complain about here, more like constructive criticisms.

Major Problems: None

Problems: Offensive line: Should have been a strength, but injuries to the right side, Birk’s almost season long injury and Kleinsasser’s loss hurt. McKinney played OK, but I expected him to elevate his game this year and he regressed a little. Gave up too many sacks. Running Game: Linked to the above loss of O-Line and especially Kleinsasser, the running game suffered, when it should have been a strength. Much like the O-Line it was a mixed-and-matched bunch, none of the backs ever established a rhythm.

Minor Problem: Randy Moss: Moss is a gifted receiver and a game breaker. As much as I think his attitude stinks we need Randy Moss to get to the Superbowl. Injured for most of the season he still hauled in 13 TDs (one for 82 yards). If he can overcome any residual bitterness in the locker room, everything should be OK. Overall I think Moss is a good guy, doesn’t really care what anyone thinks about him and acts like a spoiled kid.

Minor Strength: Jermaine Wiggins: Where did this guy come from? He grabs 71 balls this year vs. 50 in his previous 4 years, catches 4 TD’s and 9 grabs more than 20 yards. Did Tice sprinkle some magic TE dust on him? I’ll believe it when he puts up good numbers next year when the much better blocker Kleinsasser eats away at his time.

Strengths: None

Major Strengths: Wide Receivers: Nate Burleson had an excellent year. He made several clutch catches on important downs and was just short of spectacular running after the catch. Should be scary good next year. Kelly Campbell fell off a little from last year as he gave way to Burleson and Robinson, but made up for his diminished role with some solid return work. Marcus Robinson was pretty good but also lost playing time as the season wore on. Add Moss to the mix and the Vikings clearly have the top receiver core in the game. Daunte Culpepper: Best season by a Viking QB ever! Top 3 QB in the league, fourth best all time QB rating for a season, 39 TD’s, 4717 yards only 11 INTs all while looking more poised than ever in the pocket. Seemed to get rattled at times and calls too many time-outs. How much of that can be attributed to poor play calling by the coaches is hard to determine, but I imagine it’s a major factor.

Coaching: Well I can’t say I’m sorry about Linehan leaving for the morass of Miami. I think pretty much any decent O-coordinator could run this offense as smoothly as he did. His play calling was out-right stupid at times (Moss should not be passing the ball in a close game during the 4th quarter! EVER!!!) and uninspired the rest. He didn’t seem to know how to run the ball this year. One run play would work well then you wouldn’t see the same play broken out again the rest of the game, but if a running play failed he would try it again and again. Of course Tice could have stepped in but the Vike’s offense was just short of spectacular. How do you approach Linehan?

Guess that’s why I’m not a NFL head coach.

Part 3 on the D will come when I can think more rationally about it.

Kick Her to the Curb

This article on AIE by David Frum rekindled my frustration at our efforts with Europe.

The Europeans have really bothered me for a long time, I left Europe at the diner a long time ago. We rescue them from the hell of total war, rebuild their economies, protect them from the communists, let them run themselves (unlike our Soviet opponents) and all we get is grief. Britain is the sole exception. A country that continues to elect excellent leaders combined with a national culture of spreading civilization and values around the world (white man’s burden…sorta.) Not that Britain is our best buddy; they are competitors, friendly competitors unlike many of the others.

I don’t know why we should care about loosening our transatlantic ties. Let the Europeans defend themselves. Move the bases where we need them. Countries that come to mind include Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iraq and maybe some country in Africa, a continental hotspot born from craven despotism and widespread larceny. These countries could do a lot more with the billions spent on and around US bases than the resentful countries, embittered about having to maybe work more than 35 hours a week. And at the same time we get troops and assets in areas that need either stabilization or the threat of power. Our major defense problems exclusively emanate from Asia. We need to project force where force is needed. Afghanistan shares a border with Iran, Pakistan and China (a pretty nice trifecta.) Who are we projecting force at in Germany?

Europe is old news. The real action is in Asia. India alone has more people than the entirety of Europe, and China is bigger still. Then you can throw in Indonesia (fourth), Pakistan (sixth), Bangladesh (eighth), and Japan (tenth). That’s a damn big and growing (well except for Japan) market that will soon be demanding the same things everyone else is: a new car, new TV, new shoes, new computer, new everything. In Europe one has to look hard for positive economic growth and even harder for population growth. There's more money to be made in Asia over the next 50 years than Europe could ever hope to match.

We need to concentrate on building respect and goodwill with the Asian countries. We should concentrate our diplomatic and trade efforts on countries that will increase in importance, not decrease. We should invest in vibrant growing economies, not lazy shrinking ones.

In Europe we’re throwing good money after bad.